We continue to write our weekly rubric – The Empire of the NBA Numbers. And today we will talk about the value of three points.
The father of advanced basketball stats is Dean Oliver, who wrote the book “Basketball on Paper” in 2004.
Oliver opened the door to the life of basketball statistics. It was Oliver who created the four-factor system for basketball success. He included in this quartet:
– Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%)
– percentage of losses (TOV%)
– Rebound Percentage (RB%)
– penalty rating (FTr)
Oliver distributed the importance of each factor as follows: 40% of success depends on the accuracy of the shots, 25% on the percentage of losses, 20% on the percentage of rebounds and 15% – on penalties.
Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) allows you to rate the accuracy of throws. Previously used the base Field Goal Percentage (FG%) – the number of hits on the number of shots. But with the increase in the number of three-pointers, this metric is hopelessly outdated. This metric is mixing throws from beyond the arc and two points together, this seriously kicks the teams that hope for a three-point. The bottom line is that the three-point is not implemented as often, but they cost a half times more expensive, and FG% only takes into account accuracy. eFG%, in turn, adjusts for the value of three points. An eFG% of 50 means that the team scores 1 point per throw.
Houston is 22nd in accuracy Field Goals and sixth in eFG%, with almost half of their shots being three-pointers. And, given that they have a second NBA strike, the eFG% is closer to the truth. eFG% allows you to more adequately assess the team effectiveness and opponent shots.
eFG% is a very useful indicator. In his example, we can see that Malcolm Miller throws a lot (10.3 per game) and makes it very bad (45.8% eFG%).
In general, 4 factors describe the match enough fully. As a rule, looking at them, you can determine who won, although these statistics do not say any word about points. And, if you look at the seasonal performance of the team in 4 factors, you can quickly find out what exactly are the indicators of attack and defense ratings. So next Thursday we will continue to talk about the other 4 factor indicators.
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