Charlie Blackmon’s Batting Average of .500 – Should We Expect a New Record?

On his way to join Ted Williams on the pedestal of players who achieved a .400 season is Charlie Blackmon. The Rockies’ right fielder is currently sitting at an impressive .500 after having played 17 games with 68 at-bats.

The question everyone is asking is whether or not he will make it till the end of the season without dropping his average below .400. While the odds might seem promising to some, let’s take a deeper look.

Chances of Staying Above .400

The first thing to consider is that Blackmon will not be required to repeat the unprecedented success of Ted Williams who, in 1941, achieved a .406 average with 143 games. But the amount of games still to play is 43, which makes the current point in time just about one-third of the way.

Assuming that Charlie Blackmon misses two of the future games, it puts him in a position where he has 164 at-bats to play. In order not to drop below .400, Blackmon needs 93 successful hits, or a .360 average, from this point until the end of the season.

Will he reach the desired figure? 

Now, his career average is significantly less than that, sitting at .307 and only jumping to .312 if we look at a period between 2018 and now. But the projections tell us that he won’t exceed that number this season.

Thus, the chances of him maintaining a .360 batting average for 41 games is around 10%.

Things That Play for and Against Blackmon

If Colorado decides they want to pursue the record and Blackmon stays above .400, the team might give him additional days off to increase the chances. That would only happen in case the Rockies are either qualified or eliminated and nothing is at stake.

Plus, Blackmon didn’t earn his .500 average on the home field – the number of road games was the same. It gives us extra confidence in his stability, at least for the time being.

But Colorado is scheduled to play the Dodgers (best ERA at 2.50 thus far), and the difficulty of future opponents is ranked at number two of all teams. To say that it will make things complicated for Charlie is to say nothing.

Conclusion

It will be fun to watch whether or not Blackmon defies all the odds and pulls a surprise. Who knows, maybe he’s even up for a .500 season?

What is your prediction for Charlie Blackmon’s chances?

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